Self-driving cars: July 2016 STH discussion

[Patrick]

There have been some high-profile crashes, e.g. with the Model S in autopilot and Google's first accident.

I wanted to get a pulse in terms of where STH readers fall on the topic and start a discussion.

My personal view - I want one.

This is from someone who has been driving cars for the last 10 years from an automaker that has said no to autonomous driving. On the other hand, living in Mountain View, CA I am driving with Google's fleet daily as I see them on the road several times a day.

 

[cesmith9999]

Overall, it will be a better thing. Keeping emotions out of driving and evolved algorithms will benefit us all.

The traffic will be denser and more flowing.

That said, it will take a generation or two for it to happen legislatively.

Chris

 

[MiniKnight]

As a tech guy, I want it. I just don't think we'll see it soon. Outside of a few major markets, nobody is going to pay for the tech when drivers are a few dollars a day or week in many countries.

 

[ttabbal]

I lean toward it being good and I want one. People, frankly, suck at driving. And yes, that includes myself. We are distracted too easily, particularly on things like a commute that we do all the time, over and over. And we get emotional about it. We've all seen that guy that HAS to be in FRONT, regardless of the dangerous driving they have to do to get there.

With regard to Tesla in particular, I don't think they did themselves any favors by calling it "autopilot". Mostly because people are stupid and don't know that most autopilots just try to maintain heading and altitude. The pilot still has to watch for and avoid other planes etc.. Driving is a much more difficult problem. Aircraft generally have separation distances measured in miles. Cars are in feet, on a good day. You also don't have 3 dimensions to maneuver in. And someone needs to teach Musk how to respond to these sorts of things. He's turning it into a PR disaster.

All that said, he IS right. Per miles driven, computers have far fewer accidents. In part, that's due to limited application, but they are only going to get better. If we got news stories every time a person crashed a vehicle, we wouldn't be able to hear about anything else. My irritation with the whole thing is that I suspect someone is going to sue them and win. In spite of all the warnings they have. That will have a chilling effect on the technology as a whole.

I don't think technology is there yet for every driving situation. And as a result, it can be, in some ways, worse than not having it. It makes the people become complacent and expect the car to do the driving. Then they aren't prepared to react if there is a problem. I think it will get there, probably faster than anyone expects. Likely far before the legal situation is resolved.

 

[TType85]

I am sort of split on this. I enjoy driving, my hobbies outside of computer stuff are mainly around racing and working on my cars but self driving cars would be nice especially in traffic or long boring road trips (LA to Vegas). I feel it has to be all or nothing though. All cars need to be self driving and need to be able to talk to each other for it to work.

 

[Marsh]

Even the self driving technology is 100% perfect today, do you trust the car manufacture's implementation of said technology.

Example:
Timeline: A History Of GM's Ignition Switch Defect

2001: GM detects the defect during pre-production testing of the Saturn Ion.

End of 2013: GM determines that the faulty ignition switch is to blame for at least 31 crashes and 13 deaths.

June 5, 2014: An internal inquiry by Anton Valukas, a former U.S. attorney, into the ignition switch recall finds an 11-year "history of failures" and "a pattern of incompetence and neglect," Barra says.

11 long years to fix a "bug".

 

[dba]

I am not hoping... I am planning on buying a full level 4 autonomous car by 2020. I'm guessing it'll be race between Volvo, Mercedes, and Tesla to see who gets my money, depending on who has the technology.

 

[SomeGuyInTexas]

I will be a contrarian and share that while there are some occasions that I would be tempted to want one, I vastly prefer driving the old school way. After 26+ years in electrical engineering, I simply have seen too much go unexpectedly wrong to trust mass market vehicles with automatic driving capabilities.

Look at the articles about the Toyota braking issues, and even at a company that has heralded engineering teams you see serious issues. I don't like the fact that the throttle has been drive by wire for most cars for years now, and REALLY don't like brake by wire.

I have been accused of being a curmudgeon, so there is that. . I have been a type 1 diabetic for the past 20 years and still don't trust insulin pumps, since manual injections work fine for me. Perhaps I just have technology trust issues.


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[manxam]

I will be a contrarian and share that while there are some occasions that I would be tempted to want one, I vastly prefer driving the old school way. After 26+ years in electrical engineering, I simply have seen too much go unexpectedly wrong to trust mass market vehicles with automatic driving capabilities.

Look at the articles about the Toyota braking issues, and even at a company that has heralded engineering teams you see serious issues. I don't like the fact that the throttle has been drive by wire for most cars for years now, and REALLY don't like brake by wire.

I have been accused of being a curmudgeon, so there is that. . I have been a type 1 diabetic for the past 20 years and still don't trust insulin pumps, since manual injections work fine for me. Perhaps I just have technology trust issues.


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Funny that you should mention brake-by-wire. I just went off on a huge tangent tirade to my wife about this a couple of days ago. With electric steering, one still has a a manual rack that's attached directly to the steering shaft. The "electric" part is just an assist motor inline on the shaft. If, for whatever reason, the car loses power one still has manual steering.

On a car with hydraulic brakes, if one loses engine vacuum (car stalls), there's still manual brake action (though you'll be mashing the pedal for all you're worth). On electric brakes, what happens if the car loses power? Do you just steer, grab the parking brake, and pray?

 

[Patrick]

I am not hoping... I am planning on buying a full level 4 autonomous car by 2020. I'm guessing it'll be race between Volvo, Mercedes, and Tesla to see who gets my money, depending on who has the technology.

Yea - the Cayenne S is great, but warranty is up in late 2017 and I am "hoping" to find something that is a software update away at that point.

 

[pricklypunter]

Sorry, I'm an old fart...

The manufacturers still haven't been able to get a cigarette lighter working reliably in the 50 years I have been around, never mind having the car think and drive on its own. Also, as much as I love the idea of the tech, and it is trick I admit, if it ever comes to fruition, that very same tech will be abused by any and all with a purpose for doing so, remember who the ultimate regulation bodies are here too. Can they be trusted? Nope, and they have proven that time and time again. Oh I'm sure they will all claim it's safe, or at least as safe as things are now on the roads, and while they may have a point under the right circumstances, they'll just forget to mention that it also makes you that much more vulnerable to having a fatal accident, especially if you want to shoot your mouth off about something delicate

Quite apart from that, getting away from the obvious paranoia, as someone who will never have to own one (I hope), unless forced, I'm not going to feel safe in my own car/ truck amidst thousands of these freaking things scuttling around me like ants on a sugar trail. If there's one thing I have learned, where there's money to be made, there's a bottom dollar contract and a greedy pig that will put your life second without losing a wink of sleep over it. That alone gives me pause for thought

 

[Marsh]

If there's one thing I have learned, where there's money to be made, there's a bottom dollar contract and a greedy pig that will put your life second without losing a wink of sleep over it. That alone gives me pause for thought

Well put.
I am old enough to remember that CEO would resigned because they felt it was the honorable thing to do.

Toyota to Pay $1.2B for Hiding Deadly ‘Unintended Acceleration’
Car manufacturer Toyota has agreed to pay a staggering $1.2 billion to avoid prosecution for covering up severe safety problems with “unintended acceleration,”

 

[dba]

Yea - the Cayenne S is great, but warranty is up in late 2017 and I am "hoping" to find something that is a software update away at that point.

I drive a sporty variety of car, which is an absolute blast the 5% of the time when I'm driving because I want to drive, but 95% of the time I'm just trying to get somewhere, and a self-driving car would make my life oh so much better. It would blend the calm and relaxed environment of nice public transportation like Caltrain (I'm a fan) with the benefits of door-to-door travel and the ability to set my own schedule.

My warranty is up in 2021, which is probably luckier timing than your 2017. You'll probably be limited to a Level 2+ or 3 Tesla at that point.

 

[Patrick]

@dba for the record, I still want a ride in that machine!

I do agree. I think self driving car plus a 996 Turbo may be a fun combo.

 

[cesmith9999]

irobot crash - Bing video

Chris

 

[pricklypunter]

The line I like most is "you are experiencing a car accident". Imagine hearing that in a voice specially chosen for your comfort, while you sip your morning coffee on the way into the office

 

[spazoid]

Driving my Model S daily with autopilot, there is no doubt in my mind that self driving cars are coming, and coming fast. I love driving but I hate commuting. A car that would do that for me would be fantastic. I also firmly believe that autonomous driving will be far, far safer than what we have now, and I think my kids in 20 years will talk about "back when people drove cars themselves" and laugh at it like we do about phone booths...

I believe in the dream of not owning a car, but just using a car from a fleet whenever I need it on a pay-per-use basis. I'm not going to miss having to take my car in for service, paying the loans and insurance and wasting part of my property because I need a place to park it. A pay-per-use model would also allow me to have a car that fits my transportation needs for that particular trip. Want to relax or even sleep on your way to work? Get one where you can lie down. Need to bring the family? Get an SUV.

 

[Patrick]

I believe in the dream of not owning a car, but just using a car from a fleet whenever I need it on a pay-per-use basis. I'm not going to miss having to take my car in for service, paying the loans and insurance and wasting part of my property because I need a place to park it. A pay-per-use model would also allow me to have a car that fits my transportation needs for that particular trip. Want to relax or even sleep on your way to work? Get one where you can lie down. Need to bring the family? Get an SUV.

That is exactly my view. My question is whether individuals/ LLCs will own cars then lease spare time out to the fleets or if they will be purchased as fleets. At least in the early days I can see the former. With that said, Hertz last week signed a deal with Uber and Lyft.

 

[SomeGuyInTexas]

That is exactly my view. My question is whether individuals/ LLCs will own cars then lease spare time out to the fleets or if they will be purchased as fleets. At least in the early days I can see the former. With that said, Hertz last week signed a deal with Uber and Lyft.

While I personally don't want to participate in this, and it definitely is not my ideal, I also believe it WILL happen.

What will the unintended consequences of this radical change be, I wonder. If, in a simple case where every vehicle is autonomous, then how would things like liability, insurance, etc work? You can be guaranteed that the insurance lobby will be concerned with loss of revenue. What about the AI requirements to decide the best case scenario when faced with a decision tree that results in injuries or fatalities? That WILL happen. Do the software developers become liable? The vehicle manufacturers? The regulators who established the rules? Do some of them get indemnification after whatever qualifications are met?

Monetization will be pursuable in new ways... can you elect to pay more for a faster trip? A fleet of autonomous vans could supplant all taxi services, though if the taxi organizations were upset by Uber, think about their reaction to this.

Technology inflection points always have tons of shifts that result in indirect impacts, it can be fun to think about those potential areas.


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[gigatexal]

I want one bad. I hope to see autonomous cars fill the roads in my lifetime.