THE CHIA FARM

Marsh

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May 12, 2013
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I am on the fence about Chia farming.

This Chia farming exercise shown me that I been hoarding 600TB to 800TB of crap.
The stuff that I care about would fit in to a 8TB drive.

Second week of March, I started farming / plotting. won 2 xch on third week, 2 more xch on forth week.

math in my head is :
I usually buy hard drive during the Thanksgiving moth.
I purchased 16 x 14TB drive , cost me $190 + tax = $205 each , 16 x 206 = $3280
4 XCH at $750 each = $3000 , 90% of the cost $3280

I have 2500 plots now, have another 200TB drive space.

Going forward,
Do I continue solo farming? or quit soon?
DO I join HPool?
Do I replot and join other pool in the future?
 
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Bert

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Mar 31, 2018
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I am on the fence about Chia farming.

This Chia farming exercise shown me that I been hoarding 600TB to 800TB of crap.
The stuff that I care about would fit in to a 8TB drive.

Second week of March, I started farming / plotting. won 2 xch on third week, 2 more xch on forth week.

math in my head is :
I usually buy hard drive during the Thanksgiving moth.
I purchased 16 x 14TB drive , cost me $190 + tax = $205 each , 16 x 206 = $3280
4 XCH at $750 each = $3000 , 90% of the cost $3280

I have 2500 plots now, have another 200TB drive space.

Going forward,
Do I continue solo farming? or quit soon?
DO I join HPool?
Do I replot and join other pool in the future?
If I were you, I would go solo until 200TB is filled in. Your pool size is big enough to earn solo with some chance. I plan to join hpool because I have no space left and my chances of farming another plot is getting harder.
 
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Bert

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I may don't have enough history, of course not, but it's kind of very visible that proof times could be negatively affected by the growth rate (plotting) of the whole 'Network Space'. It's kind of obvious that in times of 'Network Space' consolidation the proof times drop largely in favor of the plotter and increase largely when the 'Network Space' growth accelerates.View attachment 18909
In the last 6-8 hours the reported 'Network Space' growth accelerated a lot. This was led by a large increase in plotting times 4-6 hours. After what is written about how 'Network Space' is calculated, this makes sense to me. On the left or 2 days ago, you can see the super short 'proof times' when 'Network Space' was consolidating at the most since the beginning of May. This was followed by a network growth with higher 'proof times'.

It's concerning in terms of how this 'blockchain' is designed. For me, it seems that larger pools can negatively affect smaller pools by just outperforming them by building up 'latency' in the market or just jumping the queue if you want to call it. This looks like an error in design and structure. Intentionally or not, this is concerning. There's now one single pool just 8-9% shy of the network majority. If Chia doesn't get the 'official' pools running in a very short time, Chia is dead before .... If 1 dominant plotting pool can disadvantage other pools, where is the way to go? Who's 'involved' in HPool may never go away or you have to begin from the very new with new 'wallets'.

Plotting now exactly for 1 month and 1 day. 1832 plots stored. Around 40 to make to get all available space filled with plots. Not a single reward here other than reactivating my sense for analyzing markets.
There are some interesting observations here.

First of all, hpool may kill CHIA but I think its impact will be short term. Engineer didn't expect such a big rush so soon. Chia is being victim of its success. It is quite possible that hpool will get close to 40% next week and panic sales will kill CHIA. I think I am going to sell all my 4 CHIAs, given the risk.

Second: "In the last 6-8 hours the reported 'Network Space' growth accelerated a lot. This was led by a large increase in plotting times 4-6 hours. " I don't understand why plotting times would be affected by network space? Can you elaborate?
 

Bert

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The webcast earlier this week indicated that replotting will not be required for pools (This is a direction change from their prior guidance).
If that's true, joining to hpool will not be a good idea.
 
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gb00s

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Jul 25, 2018
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Second: "In the last 6-8 hours the reported 'Network Space' growth accelerated a lot. This was led by a large increase in plotting times 4-6 hours. " I don't understand why plotting times would be affected by network space? Can you elaborate?
I had to edit the 'plotting' part. I meant 'proof times'. I'm still unsure why 'Network Space' growth has an impact on proof times 'locally'.
 
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Bert

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The webcast earlier this week indicated that replotting will not be required for pools (This is a direction change from their prior guidance).
Where is this webcast?


Btw, hpool is about to pass 50% of netspace, perhaps in a day or less. I would sell any chia you own in case people panic.
 
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iotapi322

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Sep 8, 2017
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Since no one talk about here ,
I waited 9 days to see anyone reporting problem with the patch, before I dare to make change to the plotter
New chiapos.so file , reduced phase 1 time 04:39 to 2:59 , phase 3 time reduce by 1 hour.

https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/nmozfh https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/nk92th
Well looking at the github repo his changes are performant, nothing strange or terrible. I'll throw this into my build in a docker container when I get some time tomorrow and give it a whirl.

I think the big improvements and the reason you won't see this pulled into the mainline is that instead of being pure python he is going down into C++ which will require a code compilation.


Thanks for posting!
 

Rand__

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Mar 6, 2014
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First of all, hpool may kill CHIA but I think its impact will be short term. Engineer didn't expect such a big rush so soon. Chia is being victim of its success. It is quite possible that hpool will get close to 40% next week and panic sales will kill CHIA.
That was discussed on Reddit too (o/c) and there was an argument that - while hpool actually channels all the communication with the chia network through their "farmer" - they don't actually control all the individual plots out there.
I have not looked into how a 51% attack would run (i.e. what would be needed), but in the current scenario I think they would need to run extra code to modify communication in flight (A) (which they potentially could since they have all users keys) or would need to modify plots on users boxes (B) (which they also could since they apparently need write access to the plots).

A might be possible but not sure how feasible this is given the tight timing (again, no idea re attack vector of 51%),
B might be relatively simple, but very obvious, I assume there are ppl out there looking for that...
 

Rand__

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The webcast earlier this week indicated that replotting will not be required for pools (This is a direction change from their prior guidance).
Which is kinda shocking as it implies that pooling is not even close to being ready if they still can make such fundamental changes at this point.
I mean, it was to be expected given their "we are only naming phases" scheme, but that tells me we are looking at 3 to 6 months before pooling will be publicly available :(
 

gb00s

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Jul 25, 2018
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Since no one talk about here ,
I waited 9 days to see anyone reporting problem with the patch, before I dare to make change to the plotter
New chiapos.so file , reduced phase 1 time 04:39 to 2:59 , phase 3 time reduce by 1 hour.
https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/nmozfh https://www.reddit.com/r/chia/comments/nk92th
Weirdly, that had a significant impact w/plotting on SFF HDD's here. Other than that, no extra joy.
That was discussed on Reddit too (o/c) and there was an argument that - while hpool actually channels all the communication with the chia network through their "farmer" - they don't actually control all the individual plots out there.
I have not looked into how a 51% attack would run (i.e. what would be needed), but in the current scenario I think they would need to run extra code to modify communication in flight (A) (which they potentially could since they have all users keys) or would need to modify plots on users boxes (B) (which they also could since they apparently need write access to the plots).

A might be possible but not sure how feasible this is given the tight timing (again, no idea re attack vector of 51%),
B might be relatively simple, but very obvious, I assume there are ppl out there looking for that...
The problem here is that the HPool is just 1 single node. This node alone dominates already 40+% of the "market". I experienced this issue back in the futures trading days when very 'sophisticated' houses used to dominate future markets and could even therefore 'dominate' any arbitrage venue. If you know what you are doing in the next 100ms, you can just block everyone out. I believe this is already happening with the HPool. I'm not pretty sure they 'really' share all the 'rewards' 1:1 or take advantage of the pool behind them and finance themself from it to grow and 'dominate' even more.

As HPool is just one node, you can prevent everyone from reporting blocks plotted.
 

Bert

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I am having hard time to understand a few things. First of all my offline wallet never gets into sync'd mode even though the node is sync'ed. I am now creating a second wallet/node another pc to hope that that will get sync'd. Of course this will take hours; does anyone have a better idea here?Can I use the same node to switch between keys?


I am trying to xfer usdt from gate.io to binance. On Gate.IO transfer has status of BCODE and it has been in that state for more than 8 hours. The website says ERC/eth network is congested. I am not sure what this means exactly. Is my xfer stuck in eth network?
 

gb00s

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Jul 25, 2018
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Poland
Just check Reddit discussing HPool. Seems there are a lot of guys with 1+k of plots not being rewarded and now joining Hpool in panic. How long does it take to reach 50+?
 

gb00s

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Jul 25, 2018
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As in 'investor', as they say they have big players, you should be worried, unless you are the HDD lobby. :rolleyes: ;) Let's see how this plays out.
Waiting on the sideline. Maybe watching a 'big fail' of a project. Will see. Wouldn't be the first in the 'blockchain' bs ...

I mean, even if official pools are starting, if nothing matters other than pool size (plot count), where's the point that HPool doesn't make sense for a lot of the guys. If you are a member of a giant like HPool, you will probably be rewarded more frequently in less 'size', because of the bigger pool and the smaller share you receive due to its giant size. So you gamble on pool membership as well. Which pool size gives you enough rewards with an 'acceptable' size/value. The next gamble is 'trust' in the pool administration and security.
 
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funkywizard

mmm.... bandwidth.
Jan 15, 2017
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ioflood.com
As in 'investor', as they say they have big players, you should be worried, unless you are the HDD lobby. :rolleyes: ;) Let's see how this plays out.
Waiting on the sideline. Maybe watching a 'big fail' of a project. Will see. Wouldn't be the first in the 'blockchain' bs ...

I mean, even if official pools are starting, if nothing matters other than pool size (plot count), where's the point that HPool doesn't make sense for a lot of the guys. If you are a member of a giant like HPool, you will probably be rewarded more frequently in less 'size', because of the bigger pool and the smaller share you receive due to its giant size. So you gamble on pool membership as well. Which pool size gives you enough rewards with an 'acceptable' size/value. The next gamble is 'trust' in the pool administration and security.
Most cryptos tend to have maybe 3 large pools, with the biggest one having nearly 50% share, and the top 3 together having 70% or more. That's all pretty typical.
 

Rand__

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Mar 6, 2014
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As in 'investor', as they say they have big players, you should be worried, unless you are the HDD lobby. :rolleyes: ;) Let's see how this plays out.
Waiting on the sideline. Maybe watching a 'big fail' of a project. Will see. Wouldn't be the first in the 'blockchain' bs ...
Makes me wonder what I should do with the XCH I have not sold yet.
Sell at current low prices, risk even lower ones or hope this all ends well and we look at higher prices a few years down the road...