Your question is very difficult to answer in the abstract. The 'right' number of spares depends on many variables that are specific to your application and expectations.
The quote is, I believe, for a vendor to bundle with their own software / service. They can source from the same place we do directly but are investigating if offloading the warranty (RTB / or supply and customer self install) and hassle of import / shipping etc is worth using someone like myself and paying a margin on top.
The brief is for upto 40 units over 2 racks. There is currently no information as to whether both racks will be in a single location but they are likely to be for a single end user.
but I do have an acecdote
Interesting, thanks for sharing. This is my thought too. I am likely to want to hedge against the servers becoming unavailable over the next 12 months by overstocking as if they do become unavailable I am stuck (give or take the two units I have for myself).
Just as a thought: each spare chassis at ~$250 is probably going to cost you less than even buying one motherboard separately so might be worth it to get an extra. As Andy and others have mentioned, for 12-24 months you should be relatively OK but in terms of labor just having a cold spare chassis around at each site may be the easiest thing to do.
Whilst logically very sound, rack availability may make that not possible. The site is not my own so I would most likely have to store the spares myself.
I feel that for the most part, these things don't fail. I have racks of compute clusters and the most often failed part is the HDD. I have one spare chassis (no memory or CPUs) with 4 sleds for the 10 that I have. Another group bout a similar spare shell for their 20 odd units. This should last us easily for the next 2-3 years, basically the useful life of the gear. I would not bother populating the spare parts.
The C6100s were produced by a separate unit in Dell from the standard and they have a pretty good reputation, it would seem. I would tend to agree on reliability but I will also need to factor in issues related to deracking, shipping to the supplier, shipping to me in Singapore. Whilst both suppliers I have dealt with have packaged well, working with a volume of up to 40 units, the probablility of hitting a problem is likely to rise a fair bit. The other off-shoot is a US$300 shipping round trip to send back a unit and get a replacement if it is not possible to just ship back a faulty part.
The economic model of used C6100 with their different position towards end of life and cheaper availability of whole systems influences the cost calculation.
1) It is reasonable to assume that used C6100's will continue to be available for the next 12-24 months, with potentially declining acquisition cost.
Possibly although Vista is reporting very few / no stocks, one of the suppliers for one of my own units is down to a few units left, the second supplier for my second unit seems to have stock but a couple of untried suppliers still report large availability. The issue would be one of confirming they will ship outside the US and the possibility that as the number of suppliers with stock lowers, whether the suppliers still 'in the game' will start to rise prices if demand is good.
2) The probabilty curve for warranty incidents has its peak at the beginning of a cycle
Fully agree. Neither of my units had an issue past a loose cable on one. Of course there is the work required to check and patch (bios / firmware) to get each unit up to spec.
3) Will you supply these servers only to one customer, or do you intend to broaden your C6100 business to multiple customers - spreading the probability further
One customer so a bit easier.
4) You might need less coverage by static things like case, vs. faster worn things like PSU, drives.
Yep so I may need to look at getting a couple of chassis plus a few more PSUs. Hard drives are not included thankfully

. Ram can be sourced locally for a decent price and a couple of units spare should be able to cope with CPU failures if any, I would have thought.
5) You might overprovision on site, and agree with the customer a flexible warranty and/or payment model if they need to tap into the spare capacity on site. Reducing your labor cost in a warranty case.
Customers customer

. Might not be an option but I am likely to offer a 'menu' of services as part fo the quote.
Thanks, I will have a good read through that link.
One of my own servers comes through Peter and he seems to have a fair amount of stock at this time so i will probably have a chat with him.
Other variable to through in is exchange rate fluctuations. Over the last year it has gone from 1.25 or 1.3 and back to 1.25 again. The difference on 40k of 0.05% plus international bank fees can make a fair difference. The rate is curently pretty low and fairly stable.
Thanks everyone for the insightful information. Lots to think about. Partly whether it is worth the risk

.
RB