Did the bubble burst?

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marcoi

Well-Known Member
Apr 6, 2013
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I woke up to all coins dropping this morning 20% ish or more.
I'm hoping this is the bubble bursting as I want to buy a few more vega 64 for mining. hopefully at msrp or less now.

seems aeon coin are down by 1.5. i was hoping to sell a few at 3.5/4.25 mark and convert to btc/ltc while those were down. Not sure if that makes sense now everthing is down?

What is everyone else planing to do?
 

keybored

Active Member
May 28, 2016
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If it burst then someone forgot to tell the miners... difficulty is still sky high.
 

Joel

Active Member
Jan 30, 2015
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Even if the bubble is burst, it'll take a month or so before GPU prices come down. People with mining gear will continue to mine as long as profit > power cost.
 

mstone

Active Member
Mar 11, 2015
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LOL, you'll know the bubble has burst when the price gets close to $0. There's still a long way to fall, but it'll happen quick when it does. I'd guess the speculators will prop it up a bit longer, and the really clueless will talk about how some other cryptocurrency will be completely different and start another bubble. It'll probably be a couple more years before this finally all goes away.
 
Jan 4, 2014
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then again, could be that a few parties are just selling a bunch, and when thats done, people will start buying again..

remember last year august btc was down to 600...

this volatility is something that can be made use off ;)

send from a mobile device, so typo's are to be expected
 

Patrick

Administrator
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Dec 21, 2010
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I did push some Aeon to BTC yesterday since altcoins were trending high compared to BTC in value. Usually, a cycle is that BTC goes up, slightly later other coins follow, then there is a sell-off.

That did a bit to help but it has been a rough morning. Went to go work out came back and the rebound was about 40% of the loss.

Not long after we started the Aeon pool in November it was down to well under $2.
 
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garetjax

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Nov 26, 2017
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I don’t think crypto is ever going away - being anonymous and potentially tax free is too powerful a force.
 
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mstone

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Mar 11, 2015
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I don’t think crypto is ever going away - being anonymous and potentially tax free is too powerful a force.
There's a chance that some kind of blockchain technology could underpin transactions in twenty years, but the odds that it will be anything available today are pretty close to zero. When something better comes along--and it will, this is baby stage math and technology--why on Earth would anyone accept assets in bitcoin/aeon/etc as having any value in the new scheme? These are nothing but science projects with a shelf life.
 

Klee

Well-Known Member
Jun 2, 2016
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Its not a bust but a correction. A damn scary one but just a correction.

It won't be the last time either.
 

jims2321

Active Member
Jul 7, 2013
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It's just a correction, with CBOE getting into the futures market for crypto, and several trading firms also starting to allow people to trade futures, its going to be more main stream, rather than a niche experiment. What this means is that governments are going to look for ways to tax/regulate crypto currency. In fact the EU is looking at that right now, and despite what the Federal Reserve is saying, they are as well.
 

funkywizard

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Jan 15, 2017
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There's a chance that some kind of blockchain technology could underpin transactions in twenty years, but the odds that it will be anything available today are pretty close to zero. When something better comes along--and it will, this is baby stage math and technology--why on Earth would anyone accept assets in bitcoin/aeon/etc as having any value in the new scheme? These are nothing but science projects with a shelf life.
Network effects are a powerful thing. There are far better coins than bitcoin, but it remains over 50% of total crypto market cap because it got a lot of people using it before anything better could do the same. General rule of thumb is that for a competitor to unseat an incumbent technology, it needs to solve an important problem 10 times better than the incumbent. Otherwise general inertia and network effects are too difficult to overcome.

Paypal replaced the check and money order as the dominant form of payment on ebay because it was 10 times better than the alternative when used in that market. Strong adoption in that segment in turn led to strong adoption in other online marketplaces, taking market share not just from checks, but now also from credit cards (though to a lesser degree).

Paypal remains in that dominant position how many years later? Surely smart people developed better alternatives in that time, but they remain marginal players, as "10x better" has not happened in the markets paypal plays in.

But this has occurred elsewhere: Square is 10x better than regular merchant accounts or "cash only" options for food truck operators, swap-meet sellers, and independant coffee shops.

Bitcoin is 10x better for buying and selling drugs, extorting ransoms, and gambling online. Those early use cases gave it enough real activity that now it's also used heavily for wild speculation and financing pump and dump ICO's.

Hard to say if this early lead as a "payment method of last resort" will translate into success as a mainstream payment method. However, if the payment delays and processing fees can be substantially lowered, the large installed base of both users and software integration makes that "10 times better" threshhold a very high bar to clear.

Anonymity, low fees, and fast transactions are things many other cryptos are far better at compared to Bitcoin, and yet few of them have seen much use outside of speculation. As a payment method, very few are accepted hardly anywhere, even compared to bitcoin, which is also not very widely accepted for purchasing "normal things". To me that says that these advantages are not sufficient to reach that "10x" threshhold on their own.

So really, it's a race to see if the next big thing can solve an important problem 10x better than bitcoin already does, or if instead bitcoin more quickly solves its own problems sufficiently to achieve mass market acceptance. Whatever happens first will become a very durable technology.
 

mstone

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Mar 11, 2015
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Network effects are a powerful thing. There are far better coins than bitcoin, but it remains over 50% of total crypto market cap because it got a lot of people using it before anything better could do the same. General rule of thumb is that for a competitor to unseat an incumbent technology, it needs to solve an important problem 10 times better than the incumbent. Otherwise general inertia and network effects are too difficult to overcome.
Except this is crypto/math, and it becomes entirely valueless when there's an advancment in crypto/math that breaks the algorithm (since there's nothing behind it). It would be a pretty bold claim to say A cryptocurrency backed by something substantive can be upgraded & converted, and that feature is pretty damn important (far more so than anonymity to anyone who isn't trying to launder money). I think that will happen, it will be a feature provided by the current financial system (only the wild eyed fringe will be upset about that) and it will have nothing at all to do with any of the existing science projects.