Slowdown in the homelab segment

[WANg]

So whats the verdict after 5 pages ?

Is Homelab dead with 4TB NVMe selling for 500 and 24TB HDD for 700 ?

I didn't buy any storage in almost 6months

Depends on whether you banked up hardware earlier or not. I actually bought some extra hardware and parts right before the de-minimus phaseout in Q1 '25, so I kinda escaped the pain of the parts shortage right after. As for whether homelabbing is dead? Depends on whether you are simply trading up old gear with new gear (and retaining the old parts) or not. If you aren’t? Look for 4 RAM slot SFFs instead of 2 SODIMM slot TMMs, use low density RAM/storage configs and learn to reuse smaller SSDs - basically raid the corporate junk pile for table scraps for the time being.

When I went from the t740 to the t755 that was just retaining the same RAM and swapping the gear. If I did buy that 6 bay NAS to replace my N40L, it'll probably be something that I can slide existing parts (drives, SSD and extra RAM from the parts bin) onto - although I doubt that there's one that will have a PCIe slot within. Technically I haven't really needed it since I migrated away from using the Mellanox 40GbE to do iSCSI, but I do still value the flexibility. I kinda wish that the MSG11 isn't such a ridiculously expensive bit of kit for branch office use. Seriously - 4 SODIMM slots, ECC, Ryzen embedded Phoenix, 1 PCIe x8 slot and same chassis as the MSG11, and it’ll be perfect for most balance sheets.

Also, never underestimate the capacity of low end hardware or overestimate your average homelab computing needs - you “might” think you need a Pi4 or 5 but a t640/Igel M350/Wyze 5070 is perfectly fine for most use cases.

 

[WANg]

No, no Minis Forum, too many odd problems reported here to feel good about the amount of money being spent there. I can spend that kind of money on a Lenovo Tiny and (probably) get everything I want.

Well, you kinda missed the boat on a nearly perfect board...but maybe the Asrock IMB-V2000 can make a comeback later...?

 

[WANg]

As an alternative Idea, can you just get some use laptops in your price range to run you new lab?
This seller on ebay has a lot of laptop for example.

Items for sale by pcs-for-people-chicago | eBay

Shop eBay for great deals from pcs-for-people-chicago!

www.ebay.com

Kinda...the issue with using off lease laptops is that you are paying for a screen that you don’t need 95% of the time, the CPU is usually thermally constrained, your I/O is limited, the positioning of the ports is awkward, and you might have to deal with some serious stinkers when it comes to repairability. I mean, if given a choice between an X1 Carbon Gen 8/9 or a Seneca HDN Element, I would elect for the latter. Beefier specs, upgradeable RAM, and they have easier to reach ports when stacked.

You might also be better off hitting auctions for off-lease TMMs or SFFs, like ThinkCentre m75q-2s or the like. Plus for homelabbing you probably want something like a Dell 5055 SFF which seems to be quite hackable. Buy some old Ryzen 5600G APUs pulled from dead Dell boxes (or OEM boxes), and you might be able to get something running relatively inexpensively.
Hmmm...I wonder if I can get away with buying a 5055 SFF just to mess around with at home.

 

[mattventura]

So whats the verdict after 5 pages ?

Is Homelab dead with 4TB NVMe selling for 500 and 24TB HDD for 700 ?

I didn't buy any storage in almost 6months

I don't think so, given that a 4TB NVMe would cost about $400 a few years ago. $100/TB was the norm before the golden age of secondhand $50/TB pricing.

 

[marcoi]

Kinda...the issue with using off lease laptops is that you are paying for a screen that you don’t need 95% of the time, the CPU is usually thermally constrained, your I/O is limited, the positioning of the ports is awkward, and you might have to deal with some serious stinkers when it comes to repairability. I mean, if given a choice between an X1 Carbon Gen 8/9 or a Seneca HDN Element, I would elect for the latter. Beefier specs, upgradeable RAM, and they have easier to reach ports when stacked.

You might also be better off hitting auctions for off-lease TMMs or SFFs, like ThinkCentre m75q-2s or the like. Plus for homelabbing you probably want something like a Dell 5055 SFF which seems to be quite hackable. Buy some old Ryzen 5600G APUs pulled from dead Dell boxes (or OEM boxes), and you might be able to get something running relatively inexpensively.
Hmmm...I wonder if I can get away with buying a 5055 SFF just to mess around with at home.

All for alternatives. If at the end of the day it is the costs that matters the most, finding ways to save while still getting done what is needed makes the most sense in this hostile purchasing environment.

btw price increases are hitting hdd and ssd now. WD basically said they sold out for the 26 year. Ssd makers are choosing to stop producing to protect their profits.

im glad i bought excess hardware last year at reasonable prices.

soon all homelabers will be sitting around their equipment saying “My precious”…..

 

[Greg_E]

I was shopping for drives for work a month ago, and we was out of pretty much every CMR drive.

 

[WANg]

All for alternatives. If at the end of the day it is the costs that matters the most, finding ways to save while still getting done what is needed makes the most sense in this hostile purchasing environment.

btw price increases are hitting hdd and ssd now. WD basically said they sold out for the 26 year. Ssd makers are choosing to stop producing to protect their profits.

im glad i bought excess hardware last year at reasonable prices.

soon all homelabers will be sitting around their equipment saying “My precious”…..

Yeah, but as my wife would've said it before "there is a very fine line between banking up on bargains and Grey Gardens". .

There are things that have limited lifespans even if it's new-old-stock/idle-on-the-shelf. Eventually the RAM sticks will develop faults and the SSDs will eventually die, so I can't exactly feel too smug about banking up parts back then, either. I doubt that I have enough 16/32/48/64GB Crucial DDR4/5 SODIMMs or 1/2TB NVMe modules here to last out the next 2-3 years...who knows what insanity awaits us around the corner...as even the RAM/NAND/HDD capacity sellout for 2026/2027 might not mean they'll hit those production numbers (helium shortfalls from the Hormuz shutdown can cause issues in chip fabs).

 

[Stephan]

DDR5 prices are falling, looks like Scam Altman is about to run out of fiat. And won't buy the entire 2026 of RAM production.

 

[WANg]

DDR5 prices are falling, looks like Scam Altman is about to run out of fiat. And won't buy the entire 2026 of RAM production.

A 15% drop in the past 1-2 weeks doesn’t really offset the 500% increase over the past 9 months, and that would just be demand drop due to the pricing increase of other things (like gas, groceries, etc).

Unless OpenAI suddenly declare chapter 7 liquidation and terminates a crapload of HBM contracts with immediate effect (which won’t happen), it would do exactly zilch to retail RAM supply. Actually, even if that was to happen, it’ll…do exactly zilch to retail RAM supply.